The Political Future of the Sudan
By Bushara Ahmed Gumaa, President of Darfur’s Friends Association.
June 25, 2005.
E-Mail: darfurs_friends@yahoo.es
There's no doubt that, the political situation in Sudan is very complicated, in spite of the signature of the Naivasha peace agreement between the the dictator Omar Al-Bashir's regime and the SPLM/A, the major rebel group in Southern Sudan, led by Dr. John Garang. Since, it’s a bilateral agreement and was essentially designed to benefit the signatories:
- The CPA Guarantees the absolute control of the southern Sudan for Dr. Garang and his rebel group and reflects all his demands that motivated the armed upraising on May 16, 1983, which was the birth-day of the SPLM/A.
- The dictator Omar Al-Bashir and his regime also have got great benefits, because they’re going to stay in power at least four years more. And this is the best way to avoid the pursuit of justice, since he (the dictator) and others are war criminals, because apart from Darfur’s Genocide, they’ve commmitted many atrocities since 1989, especially in the southern Sudan.
- Some people say that the war is over, but it’s not really true, because there’s another war and Genocide in Darfur, and the East is not calm. All these fronts are buring due to the bilateral agreements that solve the injustice in the South, but they cannot solve all the disadvantageous regions’ demands and injustice.
The dictator Omar Al-Bashir does not want to appease the country and to solve all its problems from the root. He is only looking for occasions to take propaganda photos, so as to stay in power the longest time possible. As a matter of fact, he is the dictator that much time has been in power since the independence day in 1956.
While the " AL-RAIS AL-RAQIS " (the President dancer) dances hearing the macabre melody: the weepings of the orphan children in Darfur and the shouting of the victims of Darfur atrocities, and around the country. The people in Darfur are dying from the bullets of the wicked progovernmental Janjaweed militia and from miserable, wretched life conditions that they are suffering for more than two years.
Each time that the dictator's regime signs "peace" agreement with some armed groups, other groups born in some place, demanding justice, because the regime instead of extinguishing the fire cutting the oxygen that keeps it active, it uses the stupid tactic of divide and conquer, and somtimes put more fuelwood to the fire:Today there are more than twelve groups that opposed to the regime, the majority is military-political. The following groups are some of them:
SLM, JEM, The free Lions Movements, The Beja Congress, South Sudan Liberation Movement. (SSLM), South Sudan Defence Forces (SSDF), Equaturial Defence Forces (EDF), National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the National Movement for Reform and Development (NMRD), Kush Liberation Movement, Al Shahamah Movement (Nobility Movement), National Alliance (NA), etc.The Naivasha agreements could be summarized in the following points:
1. The right of self-determination is guaranteed to Southern Sudan.
2. A transitory period is established (six years) before celebrating a referendum on the independence for the South or its permanency as part of Sudan. That means the southerners will decide whether they want to create their own State or to continue as sudanese citizens.
3. During the transitory period the dictator Omar Al-Bashir is going to keep his position as head of the State, nevertheless his power has been reduced a little bit by the new transitional constitution. Dr. John Garang will be the first vice-president, but, his position is not symbolic like in the past, when the southerners occupied this position during all the dictatorial regimes' period, but without any power. Because Garang will share the power with the dictator Omar Al-Bashir and he is going to be the president of the South, at the same time.
4. The Parliament members will not be democratically elected, they'll be pointed as the following:52 % of the seats will be for the the dictator Omar Al-Bashir's party, 28 % will be for the SPLM/A of Dr. John Garang and 20 % for all the remaining parties of the country(14 % for the northeners, the westerners and the easterners, and 6 % for the southerners parties, those who don’t belong to the SPLM/A. It is evident that the signatories of the agreements mentioned before, guarantee for their coalition the absolute majority in the future national parliament, that should begin next month, on Julio 9th, 2005. The coalition Al-Bashir-Garang will be able to pass any bills without any support of any marginal group of the parliament, because they've got 80% of the Parliament seats. Besides, if any opposition group rejects this an injustic system, it'll not be allowed to exercise political activities in the country. This despotic attitude has been rejected unanimously by all the opposition groups.In the South rebel groups threatened not to recognize all the agreements, if Dr. Garang and the dictator Omar Al-Bashir insisted to do so. Therefore, there are several possible scenarios:
- Suppose that the dictator Omar Al-Bashir and Dr. John Garang are going to accept to modify these unjust percentages that marginate the opposition groups in the Parlaimant, giving each political party its weight in the society. So as to obtain a pacific transition with the participation of all the political forces. In the south, north, center, east and in the west, and solve the armed conflict in Darfur and in the East peacefully through negotiations.
From my point of view, the best solution would be a democratic election, I mean giving the sudanese people the opportunity to decide. But unfortunately, it’s impossible for the time being.- Suppose that the coalition AL-INTIKAS- SPLM/A refuse to modify the percentages previously mentioned, and the majority of the opposition parties rejects to take part as bit-part actors in a theatre representation called " The Democratic Transition ". Then the next four years would be unstable. Since, a constitution written by only two political forces would not have any legitimacy, because the majority of the parties has been ignored.
- If one of the Naivasha Agreements signatories (Al-Bashir, Garang) dies or both of them, before the celebration of the referendum on the South's self-determination and the majority of the political forces boycotts the transitional government, then there will be unpredictable disaster.
- Suppose that everything is going to be solved satisfactorily, except the Darfur's conflict or the culprits of Darfur's atrocities are not prosecuted in an independent court outside the country, then the rebel groups would suffer a Metamorphosis and they would turn into secessionists demanding self-determination for their region like the SPLM/A did in southern Sudan, and the country would break in chunks.
- Suppose that all the internal problems are going to be solved peacefully and the referendum is going to be celebrated in the southern Sudan, but the option "yes to independence" wins, then there will not be peace, because Naivasha Agreements were signed by the dictator's regime convinced that the south would never vote in favore of the independence. Because the dictator is accustomed to manipulate elections and wins with almost 99.99% .
The CPA contemplates the right of self-determination for the southerners, but it doesn't solve some vital issues. For instance, the problem of the water, I mean it doesn't establish any quotas to share the white Nile's waters. Moreover, there're three frontier zones in disputes (Abei, Nuba's mountains and the southern blue Nile), that would convert into "Sudan's Kashimir", because it's similar to Indian-Pakistani conflict on Kashimir. Moreover, if till then the Darfur's conflict doesn’t solved satisfactorily for the darfurians, then the new State created in the southern Sudan would support the Darfur's rebels and these would manage to convert Darfur into an independent State someday.
The center of Sudan would turn into the geographical southern Sudan. That means the country would not be the biggest country in Africa, because the new southern State will
has the size of France and Germany combined. But, let's not forget that the new State would has some internal disputes and clashes between different ethnic groups. Because the CPA doesn't unite neither the southerners nor the northeners, so Garang would has some enemies at home, and if he doesn't manage to unite all the southerners including all the southern rebel groups in his government. Those who have been marginated and didn't participate in the negotiations between the SPLM/A and the dictator Omar Al-Bashir's regime. Otherwise, the new State could be fragmented in different zones like Somalia: every rebel's leader would be the "master" of the land controled by him. Therefore, the best way to solve all the sudanese conflicts is a global agreement that include all the political parties and all the rebel groups in the country. So the Naivasha's Agreements should be modified in order to convert the bilateral agreement into a consensus agreement supported by all the sudanese. The power and the wealth should also be distributed between all the regions equally. Otherwise, always there will be some problem of injustice in some place in the country, and the conflicts will continue for ever.